How the Tory Government is close to collapse over Ireland

Whilst attention has mainly been focussed on the prospect of the UK Government being faced with making a humiliating Brexit divorce financial deal, potentially this issue could be minor in comparison to the threat to the existence of the Tory Government posed by the Irish border question.

This is not exactly a new feature of British politics - but it is now returning with a vengeance, especially now that the Irish Republic, being a member of the EU, has now more influence over the issue than the UK Government.

The problem is that the Irish Republic demands that there be no re-imposition of the border after Brexit, and the EU is saying that the UK must commit themselves to this objective as a part of agreeing the Brexit divorce. But there seems no way of avoiding some sort of re-imposition of border controls unless the UK stays within both the Customs Union and the Single Market. But such a commitment would effectively leave the UK, politically, as a client state of the EU - being in the EU for all practical purposes but without any direct say in the government of the EU. That's the way it is going to be anyway in the so-called 'transitional period' which is likely to last a lot more than 2 years as negotiating trade deals takes a long time.

But the UK is now being asked, in effect to either agree to this solution in perpetuity or accept the option of Northern Ireland being given special regulatory status. This would leave it as an area that is part of the Single Market and the customs union. So in effect the border would be between Ireland as a whole (North and South) and the rest of the UK. It is the solution that is backed by the WTO as well as the EU. Indeed it is an obviously sensible idea.

Yet this solution is a nightmare as far as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is concerned. To them it represents dividing the North from the South - a de facto, and even, in some senses, - de jure move towards Irish re-unification. So how is the DUP to be brought in line? With great difficulty I suspect.

But of course, as everybody who has read so far understands, this is also (apparently) impossible for the May Government to deliver simply because its survival depends on the support of the DUP to provide its Parliamentary majority. As long as the EU keeps up its Ireland demand, there seems to be no escape for the May Government. That is unless it somehow manages to get Labour support for its measures and somehow keeps the DUP on board meanwhile. It looks unlikely to me, especially as the Labour Party smells blood and is unlikely to offer any support to the ailing May cabinet.